Amy, did you see that Polymarket predicted Trump’s win before the news? How is that even possible?

Yes, it’s pretty cool! Polymarket is a prediction market. People bet on events, like the election, and those bets create odds.

So, like, they guessed Trump would win? And they were right?

Kind of! The odds on Polymarket showed Trump had a high chance of winning, even when the polls were saying it was too close to call.

But how can betting markets be better than polls? Aren’t polls based on real data?

Good question! Polls do use data, but prediction markets use something called the ‘wisdom of crowds.’ When lots of people bet, they combine their knowledge, which can sometimes be more accurate.

Oh, so everyone’s guesses together make a strong prediction?

Exactly! And the idea is that people who have good information will bet based on what they know. It’s like crowdsourcing predictions.

Got it! But isn’t this risky? What if the crowd is wrong?

It’s definitely possible! Prediction markets aren’t always right. But this time, they were pretty accurate. Even economists said Polymarket’s odds were better than the polls.

Wow. So, Polymarket beat the polls. But didn’t people say the odds were biased towards Trump?

Yes, some people thought the odds were skewed because crypto users might lean toward Trump. But in the end, Polymarket’s prediction was right.

Interesting. But why would someone like a lawyer care about prediction markets? I saw one quoted in the article.

Lawyers and researchers are interested because prediction markets are new and could be useful in more areas. But they say we need more data to prove how accurate they really are.

So, it worked this time, but we can’t rely on it forever, right?

Right! Prediction markets look promising, but experts think we need more results over time to fully trust them.

This is so cool! It’s like a sneak peek into the future. But I guess we have to be careful with what we believe.

Exactly! Prediction markets are just one tool. It’s always smart to look at multiple sources, like polls and markets, to get a full picture.